Lest we forget, in my opinion, the result of the current test match rests on the fall of the coin.I recall many years ago being told in no uncertain terms by my club's captain at the time that when you win the toss you " think about fielding first, think about it again but always bat first".
It has to be exceptional circumstances that dictate that a captain can be brave enough to insert the opposition and have to bat last on what will inevitably be a wearing wicket. Of course we will never know, but I think that the English swing bowlers would have bowled India out for fewer than England were bowled out for if the situation had been reversed (how about that for a burble).
I think a number of poor shots by England's batsmen may have contributed as well!
ReplyDeleteWe'll never know I guess. But it wouldn't be too difficult to investigate how many runs the toss is worth and come up with a model to understand that.
ReplyDeleteGames like this where the 1st innings is a low score compared to all other innings in the match, will always create the suspicion that the toss of the coin overly influenced the result. in this case I think that's very unfair on India though - I'm not sure i agree with you that England would have bowled India out for less than 198!