Mathematical help please?!
I once did Maths A-level and got a C, having failed all exams throughout the 2 years (by enlisting the help of an ultra-intelligent friend in the final few weeks before the exam who went on to get a 1st at Oxford), but my C in Maths A-level isn't proving sufficient to work out a vital cricketing formula.
What is that formula? The formula for when it's ok to shower when you're batting second.
You know the score (or perhaps you don't?) - your team is cruising to victory and you're batting relatively low down. You want to get a head start by getting into the bar quickly after the game, and you also want to avoid the peak showering time at the end of the match. So you do a quick calculation and work out when it's ok to risk having a shower, despite the fact that a horrific collapse would see you having to scrabble around trying to get some kit and pads on rapidly. Obviously you can never completely rule that out, but on the balance of probabilities you decide to either watch in kit for longer, or take the risk of showering.
On Monday I was nearly caught out on this one, hence the post. To be fair on me and give you the whole situation, my skipper decided to retire two batsmen to give a couple of others a game, and only one of them hung around with his pads on to go back in if necessary - I couldn't be expected to predict that! But nonetheless I was one wicket away from having to dart back into the changing rooms and quickly get kit and pads on after showering.
It seems to me there are 5 factors to take into consideration:
I = importance of match
R = runs required
W = wickets left to fall before you have to pad up
S = the score you're chasing
C = competence of the two batsman at the crease
There must be a formula that can be created to solve this vital problem, but it's stumped me so far! Your help please maths boffins....
3 comments:
Perhaps we could combine our thoughts to create the G/L method?
How about CRAP where C = competence factor R = runs required A = Accuracy of bowlers and P = period until the end of the match?
There are a number of methods to deal with rain that I have seen this season whilst umpiring and nobody seems to understand the logic behind any of them except that somebody finds the result unfair when the calculation is made.
I don't think you're taking this problem seriously enough Grov!!
I think your missing a vital component of the formula:
B = Bottle-it-ability. The general ability of the team to collapse and surrender an unassailable winning position.
Having batted down the order most of my career and generally played in losing sides (there is a pattern emerging) I have almost never got changed. The one time I have done it I happended to be batting at 4 on a Sunday and went straight for a shower after I was out (4th wicket down). The pavilion was right next to the pitch, yet I still emerged just in time to see that last wicket fall!
I would never get changed if I was still to go in. So, I suggest for a formula that you should only get changed if the following formula is greater than 1:
2BIW/R
Both bottle-it-ability and importance are ratings of 1-3 out of 3 (no zeros). 1 represents low bottle-it-ability or low importance of the match.
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